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Kashif Bari, Kevin Bombardier, Attilio Castano, Bingjin Liu


The World Bank provides loans to developing countries with a view to ending extreme poverty within a generation and boosting shared prosperity. Since the advent of the COVID pandemic, the World Bank has loaned over 157 billion dollars to such countries. We discovered that the World Bank has a tendency to give larger loans to countries who are going through times of political instability – as opposed to the more risk averse behavior one would expect from traditional Banks. We then worked to quantify how loans have been historically distributed. We were able to successfully find a strong correlation between GDP growth and loan distribution. Countries that have gotten loans have very similar (and relatively low) GDP volatility – a feature we developed ourselves for this project.

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