Medicare is the U.S. federal health insurance program primarily serving individuals aged 65 and older, as well as certain younger individuals with disabilities. Medicare Part B mainly covers outpatient and other medical services, including physician services, outpatient hospital care, many preventive services, durable medical equipment, ambulance services, some home health care, and certain limited outpatient prescription drugs, such as specific infusions. The cost of Medicare Part B has shown an upward trend over time, directly affecting beneficiaries. At the same time, providers are concerned with maintaining adequate equipment for patient care, appropriate staffing levels, and efficient scheduling, while the federal government seeks to control Medicare spending to preserve the program’s long-term sustainability.

In this project, we use Medicare provider datasets from 2013 through 2023 to predict future Medicare Part B spending per provider.